A Novel, Unbiased Analysis Approach for Investigating Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Calanus finmarchicus and Its Decline in the North Sea

Overview
TitleA Novel, Unbiased Analysis Approach for Investigating Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Calanus finmarchicus and Its Decline in the North Sea
AuthorsPapworth DJ, Marini S, Conversi A
TypeJournal Article
Journal NamePloS one
Volume11
Issue7
Year2016
Page(s)e0158230
CitationPapworth DJ, Marini S, Conversi A. A Novel, Unbiased Analysis Approach for Investigating Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Calanus finmarchicus and Its Decline in the North Sea. PloS one. 2016; 11(7):e0158230.

Abstract

Marine populations are controlled by a series of drivers, pertaining to both the physical environment and the biological environment (trophic predator-prey interactions). There is heated debate over drivers, especially when trying to understand the causes of major ecosystem events termed regime shifts. In this work, we have researched and developed a novel methodology based on Genetic Programming (GP) for distinguishing which drivers can influence species abundance. This methodology benefits of having no a priori assumptions either on the ecological parameters used or on the underlying mathematical relationships among them. We have validated this methodology applying it to the North Sea pelagic ecosystem. We use the target species Calanus finmarchicus, a key copepod in temperate and subarctic ecosystems, along with 86 biological, hydrographical and climatic time series, ranging from local water nutrients and fish predation, to large scale climate pressure patterns. The chosen study area is the central North Sea, from 1972 to 2011, during which period there was an ecological regime shift. The GP based analysis identified 3 likely drivers of C. finmarchicus abundance, which highlights the importance of considering both physical and trophic drivers: temperature, North Sea circulation (net flow into the North Atlantic), and predation (herring). No large scale climate patterns were selected, suggesting that when there is availability of both data types, local drivers are more important. The results produced by the GP based procedure are consistent with the literature published to date, and validate the use of GP for interpreting species dynamics. We propose that this methodology holds promises for the highly non-linear field of ecology.

Properties
Additional details for this publication include:
Property NameValue
Publication ModelElectronic-eCollection
ISSN1932-6203
eISSN1932-6203
Publication Date2016
Journal AbbreviationPLoS ONE
DOI10.1371/journal.pone.0158230
Elocation10.1371/journal.pone.0158230
LanguageEnglish
Language Abbreng
Publication TypeJournal Article
Journal CountryUnited States
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DatabaseAccession
PMID: PMID:27366910