Critical thresholds in sea lice epidemics: evidence, sensitivity and subcritical estimation

Overview
TitleCritical thresholds in sea lice epidemics: evidence, sensitivity and subcritical estimation
AuthorsFrazer LN, Morton A, Krkosek M
TypeJournal Article
Journal NameProceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society
Volume279
Issue1735
Year2012
Page(s)1950-8
CitationFrazer LN, Morton A, Krkosek M. Critical thresholds in sea lice epidemics: evidence, sensitivity and subcritical estimation. Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society. 2012 May 22; 279(1735):1950-8.

Abstract

Host density thresholds are a fundamental component of the population dynamics of pathogens, but empirical evidence and estimates are lacking. We studied host density thresholds in the dynamics of ectoparasitic sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) on salmon farms. Empirical examples include a 1994 epidemic in Atlantic Canada and a 2001 epidemic in Pacific Canada. A mathematical model suggests dynamics of lice are governed by a stable endemic equilibrium until the critical host density threshold drops owing to environmental change, or is exceeded by stocking, causing epidemics that require rapid harvest or treatment. Sensitivity analysis of the critical threshold suggests variation in dependence on biotic parameters and high sensitivity to temperature and salinity. We provide a method for estimating the critical threshold from parasite abundances at subcritical host densities and estimate the critical threshold and transmission coefficient for the two epidemics. Host density thresholds may be a fundamental component of disease dynamics in coastal seas where salmon farming occurs.

Author Details
Additional information about authors:
Details
1L Neil Frazer
2Alexandra Morton
3Martin Krkosek
Properties
Additional details for this publication include:
Property NameValue
Publication ModelPrint-Electronic
ISSN1471-2954
eISSN1471-2954
Publication Date2012 May 22
Journal AbbreviationProc. Biol. Sci.
DOI10.1098/rspb.2011.2210
Elocation10.1098/rspb.2011.2210
LanguageEnglish
Language Abbreng
Publication TypeJournal Article
Journal CountryEngland
Publication TypeResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
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PMID: PMID:22217721